Hi Nick,
Currently, in Microsoft supported scenarios, the “thumbnailphoto” parameter can’t be written back from Office 365 to on-premises AD.
In addition, as you can see in the "Table 2: Attributes that are written back to ... Exchange hybrid deployment scenario" part of the technet article you posted, there are only several parameters (no thumbnailphoto) that can be written back to on-premises. And the “written back” action requires that it’s the hybrid environment.
Thanks,
David